The Palin Factor
Sep 22, 2008 Political
Governor Sarah Palin has energized the Republican base and John McCain is bringing in the Independents. Despite what some say the Democrats are running scared. Folks in California, which should easily go to Obama, are organizing and working in nearby swing states in order to swing the vote in the Republican’s direction. According to the San Francisco Chronicle:
Post-convention swing state polls are tipping toward Sen. John McCain, the TV pundits are waxing about “The Palin Factor,” and Sen. Barack Obama’s California supporters are freaking out about a race Democrats were uncommonly confident about only a month ago.
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So Californians seeking to get involved in either campaign have options: pick up the phone, get on a plane, or hop in a car and contact a voter in a swing state that’s still in play. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are the closest swing states. Most of the Great Lakes states are still up for grabs, and Florida always beckons.
While it is true that any post convention bounce has been erased, a statement true for each campaign, this is a year in which Democrats were expected to roll to victory. Barack Obama made a few tactical errors and has been unable to completely regroup. He failed to pick Clinton as his running mate, a move that would have guaranteed him the White House, and he was taken by surprise by the Palin selection which caused him to respond very negatively. Obama’s most important selection to date was for VP and he blew that. Then he compounded things by insulting Governor Palin and his surrogates have unleashed a lot of trash that has failed to get them anywhere. In fact, there are many who were turned off by the attacks, especially the ones on her kids. The hacking of her email account also brought negative attention especially since Obama had just told his followers to “get in their faces.”
Several of the pundits have said the Palin fervor will wear off and the race will tighten or move in Obama’s favor. While national polls show Obama with a small lead the electoral college is extremely tight with a number of surprise states up for grabs. It is possible that we will have another election where the person with the highest number of votes will lose. Thank goodness the Founders had the sense to make the election 50 individual elections.
Has the Palin influence worn off? Was she a flash in the pan or does she have appeal? While Barack Obama was in Florida telling lies to senior citizens about Social Security Sarah Palin was there to discuss the issues. She drew a crowd of 60,000 people who were interested in what she had to say. So, if the Palin influence is wearing off, then why is she drawing such large crowds? Florida was considered to be very much in play but I have read Obama might scale back there if McCain increases his lead so that money can be concentrated in other battleground states. Another Obama error might have been saying no to federal funds. He might not raise the money needed to compete so he will have to concentrate in states where he has the best chances to win.
I think the next few weeks will be pretty exciting. I am looking forward to the debates. I want to see the open style for the presidential candidates but I am very interested in the VP debates. I think if Palin holds her own with Biden or wins then the balance of power will swing. Of course, Palin is at a disadvantage because she has to fight Biden and the media wing of the Obama campaign. But she is tough enough.
Sarah Palin is here to stay and she will have a lot of influence on this election. The rumors are that Biden will get some previously undisclosed illness and be replaced with Hillary. That would make things interesting but it would lead to questions about Obama’s leadership abilities. There are not many chances for do-overs in the White House.
Get the popcorn, this is going to be fun.
Tags: battleground states, biden, crowds, debates, McCain, Obama, palin