The Obama Phenomena

by Big Dog on Feb 20, 2008 at 08:05 Political

Barack Obama won Wisconsin and Hawaii yesterday and extended his delegate lead by 20. The Clinton campaign is in a downward spiral after losing 10 contests in a row. Why is Obama beating the woman who would be Queen (from Drudge)?

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households

It would appear as if just about every demographic is moving toward Obama and leaving Clinton behind. Her firewall states are Texas and Ohio. She might win Texas though Obama is inching closer. The large Hispanic population gives her the edge but the Texas method of dividing delegates might favor Obama. it is based upon turn out from the last election and Hispanics did not show up in large numbers in 2004.

There are few states left with huge Hispanic populations (the only demographic Clinton seems to be able to hold) and certainly there are no populations large enough to counter the defections from the other groups. Clinton is in trouble because even though the possibility of a brokered convention exists, there are still enough outstanding delegates to give Obama the win outright. Clinton’s only hope is a brokered convention or the theft of committed delegates.

It would appear now that if Clinton ends up the nominee there will be a riot within the DNC. She either has to win it outright or the DNC risks being torn apart by infighting.

They must also be weary of awarding the nomination to Clinton and having Obama decide to run as an independent. He and Clinton would split votes and the Republican would likely win the presidency.

Howard Dean will have a huge ulcer when this is all said and done.

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 08:05 and is filed under Political. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

One Response to “The Obama Phenomena”

  1. Adam says:
    Wednesday Feb 20th, 2008 at 12:54

    I wanted her to come close or win Wisconsin but the outcome really doesn’t matter in the long run. What’s important now is what Hillary does in the next two weeks to prevent Obama from taking over Texas and Ohio. It’s less about delegates on that day now and more about proving she can still win. If she looks strong still on March 4th then that could carry her through the last few states and to solidify her support by Superdelegates.

    I think the last thing Obama will do is run as an independent. He’s a Democratic Senator still no matter what happens, and I don’t think he wants to do that to his own party.

    I still think that if it goes to the convention with Obama in the lead less than 100 delegates then there won’t be much riot if the Superdelegates go to Hillary. If Obama leads more than 100 still then it means he won a majority of the remaining delegates and the Superdelegates will be his anyway.

    Adam’s last blog post..March 4 Soon, Please