What Will Bill Clinton Do Now?

The votes are being counted in South Carolina and the only question remaining is how badly will Hillary Clinton be beaten by Barack Obama? The race was called for Obama based on exit polling which is not usually done unless there is a very large margin of victory. As of this post 98% of the precincts have been counted and Obama has more than twice the votes that Clinton has. The Clinton campaign tried to downplay this before th election but they worked hard to win the state nonetheless. Why is she losing so badly when the difference was only about 12% on pre primary polling?

Exit polling shows that the electorate, by and large, was displeased with Bill Clinton’s style of campaigning. This was true among the black voters but also true in about 68% of the white vote. These voters indicated that they believed that Bill Clinton had unfairly attacked Barack Obama and they let him now it with their votes.

I wonder if Hillary Clinton will lose her mind and throw ashtrays at Bill since he is being blamed for the rout? It would be interesting if she does because she was more than happy to have Bill attacking Obama while she campaigned elsewhere. Regardless of how she feels about the affect of Bill this loss must be particularly stinging because in addition to the majority of the black vote Obama picked up about 25% of the white vote. Additionally, only about 20 people showed up at the place they booked for a post primary party. It will also be interesting to see if the Clintons hit even harder or if they switch tactics. She might have to muster up a few more tears. She certainly did not waste time leaving South Carolina for Tennessee…

I also if race will play into this even more. Bill made a remark that Jesse Jackson won the state as if it were no big deal that a black guy won it. I imagine if a white Republican had sad that Jackson would be gathering the Rainbow Coalition for an old fashioned protest and it is still possible that Clinton’s remarks will be seen as patronizing and incur backlash. Regardless, the Clinton campaign is going to have to be more careful because every word they utter now will be scrutinized for perceived racial content.

This might not mean much and Hillary will probably split the Tsunami Tuesday states with Obama. Since February 5th will not decide the candidate, the decision could come down to the Democratic Convention and there might be a real fire fight there.

I do wonder though, if these candidates will pick the other to be a running mate. Given how they have attacked each other it would seem to me they are less than credible in their beliefs if they picked each other. Of course Democrats wold not look at it that way so long as their party wins.

However, if Obama selected Hillary he would never have to worry about someone taking him out…

Washington Post

Big Dog

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30 Responses to “What Will Bill Clinton Do Now?”

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  3. Adam says:

    I don’t think the SC loss is anything the campaign didn’t expect and it had very little to do with what Bill Clinton did or didn’t do. This is exactly why she didn’t fight hard there.

    Obama has the majority of a minority vote which worked out well in this state. Hillary has the majority support of whites, Latinos, and women in general when it comes to Democrats.

    I think this is more of a blow to Edwards than anybody, who couldn’t even come in 2nd in his own state.

    I’m excited to see what Florida brings, specially with Hillary petitioning to have the delegates reseated.

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  6. Big Dog says:

    Well Adam, the polls say that 68% of whites and a higher percentage of blacks did not appreciate the way Bill treated him. They can say she expected to lose but she still had a bunch of offices and staff there and was running ads on TV.

    Obama got 25% of the withe vote which was more than the experts predicted however, since he beat her by about 30 points he must have gotten more than just the black vote.

    This is along the lines of Bill’s quote that Jesse Jackson won that state as in it is no big deal cause that’s the way black folks vote.

    If that is the case there will be quite a few inner cities that go his way.

    Like I said in the post, might not mean anything but the nomination will not be settled on the 5th, that is for sure.

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  9. Adam says:

    I wanted a closer 2nd place for Hillary, but every state they’ve been in Obama has won the black vote, and the black vote was the majority of voters in South Carolina, bottom line. This won’t matter in most states though.

    I don’t think Hillary has it for sure, but I don’t think SC will develop any kind of pattern any more than Obama winning Iowa did.

    What happens on the 5th remains to be seen. Every single state I’ve seen polled except South Carolina and Illinois has a big Clinton lead. This win in SC will surely energize and re-legitimize the Obama campaign, but really I think the ball is still in Hillary’s court. I’ve seen many people saying for sure that the 5th won’t decide it and I don’t believe that’s something I would bet money on. It’s going to be close though for sure…

  10. Big Dog says:

    I think that Hillary will certainly win her share of states but I am also certain that it will be mathematically impossible for one of them to wrap it up on the 5th. I don’t know how the Dems do it but with the Reps even big states like CA are apportioned to the winners of individual jurisdictions.

    Both parties could very well go to convention without a winner…

    I winder if Hillary would be petitioning to have the FL delegates reinstated if she were losing by 18 points? This was a punishment and should not be removed. If they do it will be a sure sign that the Democratic party does not believe in rules…

    It would be funny if she petitioned and won and then lost the state…

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  15. Adam says:

    I think Florida can come back if they’re all on the ballot still. I think Michigan should be gone for sure no question.

    I just realized what you were saying about the math for Feb 5th. I think the chances are very slim though for it to extend to the convention. There’s almost 600 delegates in February alone after Super Tuesday. I think that Hillary will come out on top down the line. I think that Obama needed to get to her early like in Iowa and keep on rolling but he hit a skid in between. Maybe I’m wrong though…

  16. Adam says:

    To go back, here are some numbers I put together from polls of Super Tuesday states. Polls don’t mean everything (as Hillary proved in New Hampshire) but still it paints a dim picture for Obama. She may not be able to gather the majority from Super Tuesday but I want to go out on a limb and say she’ll have the advantage after that day…

    Hillary Leads In Recent Polls:

    Alabama +15
    Arizona +10
    California +15
    Connecticut +14
    Massachusetts +37
    Missouri +15
    New Jersey +17
    New York +19
    Oklahoma +20
    Tennessee +14

    Hillary Leads In Pre-Iowa (less meaning)

    Arkansas +40
    Colorado +16
    Delaware +22
    Idaho +1
    Minnesota +25
    New Mexico +9
    Utah +18

    Obama Leads In Recent Polls

    Georgia +6
    Illinois +29


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  17. Big Dog says:

    Sure, but the delegates are divided based on outcome. If you remove the Super Delegates, Hillary has fewer than Obama. The SD do not have to go to whom they say. I don’t believe someone will have the amount needed to come out the winner by the convention and it will be decided by the SD and the convention.

    Also, If Edwards gives up and gives his Delegates to Abama it could make a difference.

  18. Adam says:

    Yeah, that’s not to suggest winner takes all, but in general a 5-10 point win in a state means more delegates than the 2nd place person, especially when it comes to massive numbers like New York and California.

    If Hillary could pull of a dramatic win on Super Tuesday, say winning 55% of the delegates, that could give her the boost she’d need to win the other 75% or so she’d need after Super Tuesday in order to clinch it without SD. A long shot, for sure, but still within grasp…

    I guess I should be glad it’s such an interesting race but using baseball as an example, I’ve never been one to be glad to watch a really good, really close game. I want the side I’m rooting for to get ahead and stay clearly ahead.

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    Billary’s success in the winning the nomination is the only hope for the Republicans to keep the White House. Because of the greed and stupidity of the Congressional Republicans, the House and Senate will be lost for a long time to come. The Republicans were given a chance to change Washington DC and they chose to give in to their greedy natures and plunder the treasury the way the Democrats have done for over 60 years. Now, we conservatives are being blamed for these Congressional Republicans naked greed. And for the foreseeable future, I cannot see how we can win back Congress. If Barak Obama pulls off a victory and captures the nomination, we are toast!

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