Scott Brown Up By Four

This is encouraging. Scott Brown has taken the lead in the Massachusetts Senate race. According to the Boston Herald:

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.
Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

This would truly cause Democrats to lose their collective minds.

It is a long shot and this is Massachusetts. Considering the Democrat’s machine it is going to be close as they come in to scare up the cemeteries and bus in the out of staters. But anything close is going to rock the Dems.

Most of the voters there are not affiliated with a party and a lot of folks are not happy with the current climate in DC.

The voters are looking at true climate change.

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Big Dog


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15 Responses to “Scott Brown Up By Four”

  1. eLwood says:

    “A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.”
    Tuesday, January 12, 2010

    Notice that’s a telephone poll (read landline) so I’m wondering how representative it can be.

    • Big Dog says:

      I am not sure but most polls involve calling people so whay would it not be accurate? Maybe I am missing the point but if this is a regular poll where they call people and ask questions I would think it is no different than any other poll where they do that.

    • Blake says:

      Considering that “landlines” represent people who are more likely to be stable, producing members of society instead of transients, I would place more of my faith in the “landline” populace.

  2. carter says:

    Take nothing for granted, push past the finish line. We want our Country back.

    • Big Dog says:

      Absolutely correct Carter. The people of MA need to step up and see this through to the end.

      • Blake says:

        The results might actually make me proud to live in the same country as Mass., instead of viewing them as the “slightly teched” members of our national “family”.

  3. Adam says:

    The Republicans drawing so much attention to the race by making it a way to doom health care will no doubt activate the Democratic base in the state. When folks say turnout will be key what they mean is that the GOP hopes for lower turnout since Democrats outnumber Republicans there 2 to 1.

    I’ll be very excited to see the exit polls that day. I hope the people responsible have it together and do some good ones for us to see.

    Both sides are raising an insane amount of cash from inside and outside of the state and spending it as quick as they can. Yet, Brown’s clearly running the better campaign. I think if he loses it will be only because of the last minute plea from the Kennedy clan to support the Dem and health care and because Coakley successfully managed to remind everyone that Brown is still a Republican in a blue state. The latter is pretty much her only plan in the race and so far it hasn’t seem to do her much good at all and could really blow up in her face because of the so-called “pendulum” swinging back in the GOP’s favor.

    • Big Dog says:

      Yes Dems outnumber Repubs 2:1 but there are more unaffiliated than both parties.

      The get out the vote is either hope Dems don’t show OR that the independents show up in mass because they support Brown by enough to offset Dems.

      Kennedy plea? They showed an old video of him discussing health care. Like some wise people said before, they will bring him back from the grave to get this.

      • Adam says:

        A message from Kennedy’s widow raised $800,000 overnight after it was sent out. It’s definitely a “from the grave incumbency” but not entirely unprecedented.

        • Big Dog says:

          Are you sure that money did not come from the LOBBYISTS she visited in DC?

          Here is an interesting item from the cited poll:

          Vicki Kennedy said, “As Ted would say, ‘January 19th is the date, Martha Coakley is the candidate.'”

          Another surprise — The Kennedy family’s endorsement may have actually hurt Coakley. With 27% said it makes them less likely to vote for her… 20% more likely.

          And then there is this:

          And Coakley is not being helped by her pledge to help pass the Democrat’s national health care bill. Fifty-one percent of likely voters here say no to it while 36% say yes. Sixty-one percent think Washington can’t afford it.

          Perhaps the nail will be Coakley’s statement that if Catholics are opposed to issuing birth control (or other procedures they are morally opposed to) then they should not work in emergency rooms because we have a separation of church and state.

          Obamacare has not passed yet so how did the ER become part of the state? And how would it play out if someone asked her about Muslims who think it is a sin for women to be seen naked by men who are not their husbands and she responded that Muslims should not work in an ER?

          That would not play well and it might not bother the less informed Democrats what she said (they believe what she says) about Catholics but the kennedys are Catholic and so is about 39% of the population in MA.

          A pretty dumb move, if you ask me.

          I read someone’s reaction to her statement and it was brilliant. He said did she take the next step and say that Catholics should not vote for Democrats?

        • Blake says:

          There was also the unfortunate (from Coakley’s perspective) gaffe regarding Afghanistan and there being no terrorists there- “they were all in Yemen”- now THAT’S Ignorant with a capital ‘I”-

        • Adam says:

          It would take a major gaffe at this point to matter for either person. What’s going to matter most is saturation of ads in these last 4 days or so and both campaigns have plenty of money to go around for that.

          But hey, maybe the GOP can hope for rain. Weather in Boston on that day is calling for mostly cloudy though.

          At this point neither side is taking anything for granted. It would have been favorable had Coakley not taken MA for granted from the start but better late than never. They are bringing out the Democratic big guns now but if the vote is a referendum on the Dems then that will only make it worse like you quoted about Ted Kennedy.

        • Adam says:

          Coakley said:

          If the goal was and the vision in Afghanistan was to go in because we believe the Taliban was giving harbor to terrorists, we supported that, I supported that goal. They are gone, they are not there anymore, they are in apparently Yemen and Pakistan. Let’s focus our efforts on where Al Qaeda is.

          While not 100% correct, she is correct enough that it is not a campaign ending gaffe. Terrorists in Afghanistan are concentrated mostly on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region as well as in Somalia and Yemen.

  4. victoria says:
    Here is a good article about the character of Ms. Coakley and intelligence level.