Proof Stimulus Is A Failure

Barack Obama is putting pressure on Congress to pass a 30 BILLION dollar package designed to jump start job creation. Obama’s administration has lost millions of jobs (net) despite the bogus “saved job” category used to deceive people into thinking that taxpayer money has saved jobs and without it unemployment would be higher.

President Obama Friday repeated his call for Congress to pass a $30 billion package to foster hiring and help tackle painfully high levels of unemployment.

“I’m hopeful the House will pass these measures next week and that the Senate will follow as soon as possible—with support from both Democrats and Republicans,” Obama said in remarks delivered in the White House Rose Garden. CNBC

The article points out that Obama said fewer than 20% of the jobs would be government jobs. Greater than 20% of the jobs “created” so far have been government jobs. About 90% of the jobs in the last jobs report were temporary census workers (read government) jobs. But Obama praised the numbers.

Obama passed a 787 BILLION dollar stimulus package that was supposed to keep unemployment below 8% and was supposed to jump start job creation. Obama said the number one goal of his economic plan was to create 3 million jobs in the next two years (MSNBC 16 Jan 2009).

The stimulus was touted as a job creator and was needed to keep unemployment from rising. Unemployment has been stagnate at just under 10% for most of the time since the stimulus was passed.

When things kept going bad the regime told us that things were worse than they thought or that no one knew how bad it was. We were then told that this was a slow process and that the stimulus needed time to work. But we are not on the track that was spelled out in his economic report. We are well behind what they predicted.

When this has been pointed out the Obama apologists tell us that the stimulus will take time and was never intended to work quickly (despite the initial claims and the report). The Obama regime told us that it would take at least until the end of 2010 before we saw improving jobs results.

Well which is it?

In either case, Obama’s request for more money to stimulate jobs is an indication that the stimulus is a failure.

If it was supposed to work more quickly, as was initially reported, then the 30 billion dollar request is an admission that it did not work as sold.

If it was anticipated that the job growth would be slower and that we would not see results until the end of 2010 at the earliest then why ask for more money now? Let’s wait to see if it works as stated when the time frame was revamped before we throw more money into the black hole.

The fact that Obama is asking for more money now is an indication that he does not believe that his stimulus will work. He knows that things will not get better as a result of his plans and he wants to appear as if he is doing all that he can because it is an election year and he knows that his party stands to get trounced.

The request for this money to stimulate jobs is an admission by Obama that his stimulus did not work as planned and that he does not expect it to work as planned.

It is a political move to throw good money (if the US actually has any good money) after bad during an election year.

The stimulus is a very expensive failure.

How many times will Obama go to the well before people begin to see this?

Related:
Retail Sales Slump

Never surrender, never submit.
Big Dog

Gunline

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14 Responses to “Proof Stimulus Is A Failure”

  1. Adam says:

    Needing more stimulus is not a sign that the first failed. In fact it has succeeded in many ways. It was just not enough.

    Your problem is you’re suggesting the stimulus has failed to do something it was never intended to do. The truth is the stimulus was never supposed to do much more than create or save about 3 to 4 million jobs. It was never supposed to change unemployment by more than about 1-2% over the first few years. If you don’t believe me then feel free to re-consult the report in question that you seem to love to distort lately:

    Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million.

    In light of the substantial quarter-to-quarter variation in the estimates of job creation, we believe a reasonable range for 2010Q4 is 3.3 to 4.1 million jobs created.

    But what have we seen? CBO estimates it has succeeded so far with between 1.4 million and 3.4 million jobs. IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com have independently estimated that value to be 2.5 million. That is even before we’ve reached the Q4-2010 milestone.

    But as they noted in the report they were worried about a loss of 5 million jobs while planning to replace just 3.3 to 4 million. Of course it turns out that was well over 5, and much closer to 8 million jobs lost. So, do you think the stimulus was just supposed to magically create more than 3 million jobs because the job losses were greater than expected? No.

    We can either just let it ride and hope the recovery continues and job growth gets serious, or we can add more stimulus. Either way it says nothing about whether the first stimulus was a success.

    • Lisa says:

      Adam, It is hard to believe a young smart guy would believe the spin of the Left and the MSM. Big gov’t IS the problem. “Stimulus” is an oxymoron and a misnomer; and a total failure; so we do NOT need more of what does not work. It only stimulates more spending for which we must do even more borrowing.
      I hope someday, soon, you will recognize that this country was started to get away from oppressive gov’t…started for our freedoms…which are quickly disappearing.
      Keep thinking gov’t is the answer and we will have nothing left…nothing at all!
      America was started by people bravely standing up to big gov’t–standing up against taxation w/o representation…all of which we suffer from, once again, today. Keep your eyes and your mind closed and keep listening to the hype, and it’ll be all down hill. Speak from facts and truth, please. Read some history. You could use Big Dog to learn from; instead of to argue with…someone who understands what America means, is and should remain.

  2. Big Dog says:

    HAHAHAHA it is amazing how you will spin to make things look good.

    Look at Biden and Obama. The three letter word J-O-B-S.

    It was all about jobs.

    The net loss has been 8 million. CBO is not worth looking at. It only scores what it has. For instance, your health care bill will now cost more as even the CBO admits that it did not have everything it needed to get those numbers. JUST LIKE I SAID.

    But you stick with them.

    The UE rate has remained the same so there is no increase in jobs. They have not created 2.5 million or any other number as the NET is a loss.

    The stimulus was touted as a method to stimulate job growth and keep the UE rate down. Their projections said the UE would not go above 8% with stimulus and it has not been BELOW 8% with it.

    All lies.

    But take a look at what the money was spent on and you will see none of it is job creating, most of it is a payoff and the debt will cause more problems than the stimulus ever solves.

    It is a failure. Say it with me, failure.

    • Adam says:

      “HAHAHAHA it is amazing how you will spin to make things look good.”

      Spin? Fine. Let’s take this from another angle since you are clearly not going to accept the reality that the stimulus will be responsible for 2.5 million jobs or more by the end of this year.

      It is irrefutable that the Romer Bernstein report estimated the stimulus would create between 3.3 and 4.1 million jobs by 2010Q4.

      Let’s pretend it did create the 4.1 million for just a moment. That would only be half of the total losses which we agree are 8 million.

      This is why without a doubt asking for more stimulus money is not an indicator of the success or failure of the first stimulus. The job losses have been far more than even the best case scenario for the stimulus was designed to counter.

      “They have not created 2.5 million or any other number as the NET is a loss.”

      That is complete nonsense and once again you are arguing the stimulus failed to do something it was never designed to do. In no way or shape was the stimulus supposed to create a NET increase in jobs over those lost. Even in the report it was supposed to create at best 4.1 with a loss of 5 (which was 8 in the end). It was always estimated to fall short.

      Can you not argue against the stimulus with even a tiny bit of honesty or factual basis? It would be nice if you could just this once…

      • MissPolite says:

        Adam maybe you can explain why The Apollo Alliance created the stimulus package when they were not even voted into office?
        I’d love to see the liberal spin on this one.

        • Adam says:

          No need for spin. You should just brush up on how legislation gets created in Congress and the influence that lobbyists and interest groups have on the process.

          Apollo certainly advised and recommended the core of the green job initiatives contained in the bill but they no more “created” the package than any of the other interest groups and lobbyists that influenced the legislation.

          I’m not saying this is right or wrong but to suggest Apollo did anything extraordinary is simply not accurate.

  3. MissPolite says:

    I’d like to know what fantasyland people are living in.
    What is Obama doing exactly to promote job growth?
    Absolutely nothing! He has businesses both big and small scared to hire anyone, or invest money for fear of more taxes or regulations.
    Thanks so much people for voting in a man who had absolutely no experience but Chicago style thuggery!

  4. Big Dog says:

    I have argued the stimulus based on facts and what it was sold as. Pelosi, Biden and the cast of liars said it would create jobs, they said UE would not exceed 8% and they are all wrong.

    I pointed out on a number of occasions the wasteful items that the money was spent on, items that will not stimulate the economy and you defended them as necessary for growth. They used our money to pay off supporters and pay for things that will not help and have not helped.

    • Adam says:

      It has has created jobs no matter how many times you say otherwise and is on track to create between 2 and 3 million by the end of this year. That’s not as good as people hoped but it’s hardly the failure you present it as.

      I just realized Politifact did an article on the 8% GOP distortion months ago. I better quote this because it’s too good to pass up:

      The claim that the Obama administration “promised” the stimulus would keep the unemployment rate below 8 percent is a popular talking point among Republican critics of the stimulus.

      We’ve heard it from House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., and Lynn Westmoreland, R-Ga., as well as conservative talk show host Sean Hannity, to name a few. They all called it a “promise.”

      They are referring to a Jan. 9, 2009, report called “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan” from Christina Romer, chairwoman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, the vice president’s top economic adviser.

      What we saw from the administration in January was a projection, not a promise. And it was a projection that came with heavy disclaimers.

      “It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error,” the report states. “There is the more fundamental uncertainty that comes with any estimate of the effects of a program. Our estimates of economic relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.”

      There’s also a footnote that goes along with the chart that states: “Forecasts of the unemployment rate without the recovery plan vary substantially. Some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11% in the absence of action.”

      That sure doesn’t sound like a full-fledged promise to us.

      Amen. There was no promise. The 8% figure was an estimate that was wrong by the time the bill was even signed into law. Stop spreading lies.

      • Big Dog says:

        The only one spreading a lie is you. You claim the 8% was wrong by the time the bill was signed but that information was unknown. We only knew what it was for January and would not know this information you claim for two more weeks. This is a perfect example of hindsight. After seeing the numbers in March it would be easy to change the story for February.

        And the disclaimer they point to is the one that only deals with the impact of NOT having the stimulus. The implication is that things will be much better with the stimulus. It specifically says that forecasts WITHOUT the stimulus vary substantially. Nowhere does it say forecasts WITH the stimulus vary substantially.

        In the absence of action tells us that we need to do it or things could be much worse than they predict.

        I know you will find it hard to remember all the people touting the wonder of the stimulus and what it would do but most of the money was spent on things that are not stimulating.

        Take away government jobs and tell me how many jobs were actually created. If you have a business and take in 2 million but spend 5 million do you have a net gain of 2 million or a net loss of 3 million?

        Would you call such a business a success?

        If so then you need to go back to school. If not then you know why the stimulus was not a success with regard to jobs, which remember is a three letter word that was Obama’s NUMBER ONE priority…

        • Adam says:

          “You claim the 8% was wrong by the time the bill was signed but that information was unknown.”

          So remind me again what knowing this while signing it means for your argument because I’m still at a loss for knowing it’s relevance.

          “Nowhere does it say forecasts WITH the stimulus vary substantially.”

          I see three options here for you. Option 1 is you haven’t read the report. Option 2 is you have read it and you don’t understand it. Option 3 is you have read it and you do understand it but you’re just a bald faced liar. You tell me which option is accurate for you because it’s there all to read:

          It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error.

          As emphasized at many points in the analysis, there is substantial uncertainty around all of our estimates.

          All of the estimates. Not some…not a couple…not just one kind. All estimates.

          Second, as emphasized above, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely.

          But no, nowhere does it offer disclaimers for estimates of the effects of the stimulus…

          “Take away government jobs and tell me how many jobs were actually created. If you have a business and take in 2 million but spend 5 million do you have a net gain of 2 million or a net loss of 3 million?”

          And your point is? The stimulus was NEVER supposed to create a net increase in jobs. They were expecting job losses of at least 5 million and they were predicting the stimulus would create 3 to 4 million leaving a deficit of 1 to 2 million.

          “If not then you know why the stimulus was not a success with regard to jobs…”

          The plan was to create 3 to 4 million and it will have created an estimated 2 to 3 million by the end of this year. I hasn’t been perfect but you’re stuck resorting to lies and distortions because you just don’t want to admit that it did any good at all.

  5. Big Dog says:

    You change the argument. Your argument was that he signed it when it was above 8% so the claims of won’t go over 8 are nil because it was already above it. You can only make that claim now, not at that time.

    You keep moving things around. I read it and there is a footnote disclaimer that deals specifically with the UE rate. This despite already telling us ALL their estimates are uncertain. They are specific about without for a reason. They want to sell the plan.

    This says that 90% of the jobs will be private sector. Most have been government jobs.

    The thing has been a failure. Most of the money spent was on things that do not stimulate the economy.

    I attack it because it is a failure. It did not do anything. I can’t see the created jobs from these report. I can wait until the end of the year to see but he wants money now to get more jobs.

    If he can’t wait then he knows it is a bust.

    • Adam says:

      “Your argument was that he signed it when it was above 8%…”

      That still is my argument and it is correct. It doesn’t matter when we found out how many jobs were lost in February. We know now and that has no bearing on my argument.

      The problem has been made clear already to everybody thinking critically about this problem. The quarterly economic data was not out at the time of report and when it did come out it showed the recession was much greater than anticipated by the transition team working in the report. That might mean something if the report wasn’t full of disclaimers already saying that was possible.

      “You keep moving things around. I read it and there is a footnote disclaimer that deals specifically with the UE rate.”

      I have moved nothing around, whatever that means. If you look closely the point of the footnote is simply to say that the 9% high mark without the stimulus might actually be 11%. That’s important. They couldn’t have left that out just because they already said the whole thing was an estimate subject to error.

      An interesting thing happens when you think about 11% as the high mark. The estimated impact of the stimulus was a drop from 8% to 7% by the end of 2010 due to 3 million jobs added back to the loss of 5 million. If you were to say 11% was the high mark and we peaked at 10% instead then the stimulus’ impact on unemployment might be more in line with what they expected. That’s just speculation on my part though because I find this subject interesting to argue about.

      The bottom line though is that the price of the package was fixed so the number of jobs was going to be a pretty fixed amount either way. The impact of those jobs was going to vary based on the accuracy of their estimate on the total impact of the recession before 2010 when the stimulus would have the most impact. Their estimate was wrong and therefore the impact was wrong.

      You can continue to insist that means the stimulus failed but if you honesty assess what the goals of the stimulus was and you stop ignoring the economists who project 2-3 million jobs, then you see the stimulus hasn’t been perfect but it’s no where near the failure you present it as.

      “This says that 90% of the jobs will be private sector. Most have been government jobs.”

      You mean the jobs you won’t even admit it created? How do you know this? I have no idea what sectors the jobs have been in but I do trust the economic bodies that are estimating the impact at 2-3 million created.

      “I can wait until the end of the year to see but he wants money now to get more jobs.”

      The problem is you don’t believe economists can estimate jobs saved so you’re never going to admit anything about the stimulus. You called it a failure the day it passed and you’ve done nothing but ignore reality ever since just so you can say you were right.

      • Big Dog says:

        I called it a failure the day it passed because we have played this game before and the result was failure. We had a GREAT Depression while the rest of the world had a depression because of government meddling.

        The stimulus did not do what it said it would do. Any jobs created were in the public sector, that is not what the stimulus was supposed to do and it states as much in the report. Public sector jobs do not generate revenue to the government because salaries are paid with tax dollars and the salaries are higher than the taxes paid in. Only private sector jobs will generate revenue to the government. So creating a job is no good if it is not the right one. 90% of the jobs created in May were for government (temporary census workers). Private sector slipped again.

        He wants more money to get more jobs? No way. Wait to see if he is where his report says at the end of the year. We have already spent nearly a trillion dollars that did not stimulate the economy. Look at the list of spending and tell me how most of it has anything to do with helping the economy. It does not. It is for pet projects and payoffs.

        The stimulus is not doing what it we were told.

        As far as jobs saved, a lot of economists have already said that was a bogus category. It is impossible to measure and the Obama formula gave him credit for a saved job even if the person was in no risk of losing a job.

        Real math and real logic. You can’t measure a saved job. You can measure a gain or a loss. And we are at a net loss.