Comments on: Obama is Gaining Momentum

By: Adam

Adam — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 12:43:51 +0000

March 4th could be huge for Hillary. Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont are all states that Hillary has held strong leads in. If she could sweep all 4 she would gain back 40-60 delegates over Obama, win 3 out of 4 and be doing great, 2 out of 2 and at least chip away at his sense of momentum. But after Obama’s string of victories she’ll be looking for a real comeback and not that phony comeback she had between Iowa and New Hampshire.

Adam’s last blog post..The Potomac Primary

By: Adam

Adam — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 12:33:01 +0000

He did well in all 3 again, but he has proven himself able to win a majority of women in states with a large percentage of black voters.

Polls show Obama pulling ahead in Wisconsin like some people have said all week. No change in Ohio yet, still a 17 point advantage for Hillary. In the next few days we’ll see how these 3 new wins affect those numbers…

Adam’s last blog post..The Potomac Primary

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 03:35:08 +0000

In the Chesapeake Rout, according to exit polls in Maryland, Obama won:
Latino Voters By Six Points: 53-47
All Religions (Including Catholics)
All Age Groups (Including Seniors)
All Regions
All Education Levels
And Women by TWENTY ONE POINTS…

By: Adam

Adam — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:46:33 +0000

I see a 5 point Obama lead over a 5% block of Latino voters in VA, and 5 point Obama lead over a 4% block of Latino voters in MD. I wouldn’t call it off for Latinos and Hillary just yet.

Adam’s last blog post..The Potomac Primary

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:30:10 +0000

I can see your point Adam but the exits from VA are showing Obama with a 10 point lead among Latinos. Might be a fluke but if this holds or if enough of them are mad at her dismissal of Doyle, it could spell disaster.

If she loses Texas she is done.

By: Adam

Adam — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:24:29 +0000

I’m pretty worried about her campaign. I’m not ready to call her Texas/Ohio plan a Rudy disaster, but I think basically it’s her only choice, so I’ll watch nervously and hope for the best.

The order and grouping of these primaries and the demographics of the states they’re in are just not in her favor. This time next month we could be saying the opposite of this though in states that Hillary still leads in. It’s just a question of what this long chain of wins by Obama will do to her perception as a viable candidate.

I’m not ready to write off Wisconsin yet though. Recent polls show she has a lead there still, but it’s slim enough that Obama can threaten it. At this point she’ll settle for a single digit loss anywhere as opposed to these double digit, 20-30 point losses, I think, given the nature of proportional allocation.

I’m not really seeing anything about Hispanic voters or any signs that her core set of supporters are turning against her yet though. What I am seeing is that now that John Edwards is gone, Southern white men are supporting Hillary.

I’m worried about Ohio and Obama’s momentum but not really Texas. She’ll need both realistically though, but one would keep her in the game.

The truth is Hillary appeals to the lower income, working class Democrats, white women, Southern white men, and Latino voters, which is a much larger voting block than Obama’s. Obama appeals to the over 50k a year, Star Bucks going rich Democrats and of course the African Americans of all shapes and sizes, also he pulls from all groups on this change stuff. My only point in this long rambling comment is that Hillary just needs to weather the storm, not have a meltdown (could come any day), and try to make it through to greener pastures and back to her core voters…

Adam’s last blog post..The Potomac Primary

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:57:04 +0000

True, very true!

By: Raven

Raven — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:55:36 +0000

Heh…she’ll turn on her eye faucets again. Just wait and watch. People will grow tired of the show though. In the end I suspect she will somehow get the nomination; the Clinton’s are not known to play fair or right; corruption and vote buying are their middle name.