Comments on: Notes And Quotes

By: Adam

Adam — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:45:58 +0000

I don’t think that’s true. I don’t know if you’d stake public policy on an exit poll or not but it’s a good glimpse into the reasoning behind a voter’s decision even if it’s not 100% accurate.

By: Adam

Adam — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:44:15 +0000

I think you may be right with a GOP sweep today. Of course it’s like a debate. Both sides are going to somehow claim victory even if one of the other lost miserably in reality.

By: Blake

Blake — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:36:37 +0000

No, 23 is as red as a district gets in NY- but that is not really saying much, unless it is changing because of all the unnecessary spending in Washington- attitudes may be changing- we shall see.

By: Blake

Blake — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:33:17 +0000

Adam, I am not sure there is such a thing as a reliable exit poll- everybody seems to get it so wrong-

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:09:13 +0000

Unless Corzine loses NJ. But I think that a sweep by Republicans and Health care overhaul is in trouble.

I think this is one Obama thought he had a chance at.

The district is Republican but not extremely conservative.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:07:46 +0000

Still say only the GOP stands to get hurt in NY-23 if there is hurt doled out.

If the GOP wins bigs the Dems say “Well, that’s a deep red seat anyway, it’s no surprise it stayed red.”

If the GOP barely wins the Dems say “It goes to show you how weak the GOP is if a deep red seat only barely stays red.”

If the Dems win big or small there will be a huge amount of liberal gloating and this will be molded into a referendum on Palin and Beck and the 9/12 movement in general.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:52:55 +0000

There's a quote in the poll:

It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.

It's wroth noting the margin of error of +/- 4% combined with the 18% undecided in the recent poll could make for interesting results tomorrow if this poll is closer to reality than the PPP.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:41:59 +0000

There is a new NY-23 poll out on RCP showing Hoffman +5. The momentum is definitely on his side. The most interesting thing of all perhaps will be exit polls if the media does any good ones.

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:30:52 +0000

Considering the make up of NJ, that is a statement about the governance there. A lot of people do not like Corzine and I think if there was not a third party candidate in there Christie would win. That might be a deal that Corzine struck.

I think Christie has a good chance of winning but it will be a close race either way.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:22:11 +0000

I think Obama saw the chance to do many things at once with the appointment. I’m not sure if he thought it was guaranteed the seat would go to a Dem but taking a 30%+, powerful and respected Republican from the seat can’t hurt the Dems.

There’s also the NJ Gov race that is neck and neck. Looks like Virginia Gov is one sided.