Likely vs. Registered Voters

We are overwhelmed with polls about everything and right now in time the polls all deal with the 2012 election. Many polls show Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney (the presumptive nominee) by a few points and this is causing despair among those who want Obama defeated.

Dick Morris reviews the substance of these polls in his latest video.

Morris points out that the polls showing Obama winning are polls of registered voters which Morris says are cheaper to conduct.

He claims the real polls that matter are among likely voters and those polls show Romney and Obama neck in neck.

But Morris goes further to point out that he has analyzed polls going back to 1964 and the results show that the challenger (facing an incumbent president) gets the undecided voters.

His claim is that about 80% of the undecided go for the challenger and this means Romney is actually up by about four points. Morris points out that if people are undecided about you after you have had most of a term in office it does not bode well.

He likens it to asking your spouse “will you be married to the same person next year” and getting the answer, I’m undecided. He says that would not be good.

In any event, the polls are not necessarily what they appear to be at first glance.

The reality though, is that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day so make sure to get out and vote.

Cave canem!
Never surrender, never submit.
Big Dog

Gunline



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