Is Hillary Toast?

Fresh off her third place finish in the Iowa caucus, Hillary Clinton is trying to reinvent herself once again. She enjoyed a small lead in New Hampshire but that seems to have eroded according to the latest Rasmussen poll. B. Hussein Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by ten points with the primary only three days away. A lot will ride on tonight’s debate and I expect Hillary to go very negative. She will be attacking Obama all night long.

The attacks have already begun as the Clinton campaign sent out a mailer criticizing Obama on his abortion rights record. Hillary’s mailer claims that Obama did not take any stance on abortion issues where as she has been the champion of women’s right to choose. She has been trying to reinvent herself starting with claims of being the most experienced candidate (which must have been news to Dodd and Biden who have now bowed out) and then she went to the Obama play book and became the candidate of change. She has been talking about change but is surrounded by relics from her husband’s administration and those who helped him get elected. Not that she shouldn’t use talent she thinks is the best but it is hard to claim you are for change when your campaign rhetoric keeps returning to the days of yesteryear. Going back to the Clinton administration is not the best way to present a forward looking campaign.

Rush Limbaugh had an interesting article in his most recent newsletter where he took a bunch of Hillary’s (among others) quotes and showed how she will force people into health coverage, force pharmaceutical companies to lower prices and force oil companies to spend their money of R&D for non fossil fuels. Rush points out that this is the opposite of freedom and that the government should not be making these mandates. Hillary sounds like a Nazi. Interestingly, this silhouette photo (I think it is from AP) makes it look like Hillary is giving a Nazi salute.

Hillary is losing New Hampshire though things might change after the debate but the question is, is she toast? She lost Iowa, and she is behind in New Hampshire. Obama has been running an even campaign and he appears to be picking up momentum. A win in New Hampshire might be the death of Hillary though she, like Giuliani, might be looking to Florida to make a run. The candidate from each party who wins Florida will likely win the nomination. Super Tuesday is right after that and none of them have the money or resources to run ads in all the states participating in that event and it is physically impossible for them to be in all of the states at once. Hillary will probably send Bill to one state with a huge number of delegates while she campaigns in another but she must win Florida in order to compete. She also has to convince voters that Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton is a good thing…

This is going to be fun. She is melting down and I would love to see her explode. A few more losses might just do that.

Of course, she might turn things around and win. Then the real fun will begin.

Big Dog



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23 Responses to “Is Hillary Toast?”

  1. Adam says:

    It was a big blow to lose Iowa, but she practically tied for 2nd since it was so close. She runs a very nimble campaign so it will be hard to count her out unless she places 3rd or 4th in NH. If she can pick up a strong 2nd place though she should still have a fighting chance heading into Michigan and Nevada.

    Bill Clinton proved you don’t have to win Iowa or New Hampshire to build momentum down the road, but the fact that she actually campaigned hard in Iowa and spent millions makes it a bit different situation.

    Averages across polls make it still a tight race between Obama and Hillary though. Should be another nail biter. I don’t think she has to win these first few primaries to do okay, she just has to keep it close enough to keep most of her people on her bandwagon heading into more favorable battles.

    Romney winning in WY makes things a bit interesting going into NH for Huckabee. McCain seems to be growing in favor there though too, so who knows? I’m pretty excited to see how the next round goes for both parties.

  2. Big Dog says:

    As you pointed out, she spent a lot of money to come in third. Her husband did not campaign in that state so him not winning it is a different issue. You are right though, he lost the first few before he won. With Super Tuesday the way it is the candidate who wins Florida will most certainly get the nomination because it will put that person in a strong position going into the big day.

    Huckabee will have trouble in NH because there is not as big an evangelical base. McCain is liked there and he should win it.

    I am not sure that I want Hillary or Mitt in charge of my money. They both spent millions and lost…

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  4. Dana says:

    The one with the most experience and the advocate of change? I think she should pick one and stay with it. It seems to me to be a repeat of Clinton…all things to all people. I was dismayed it worked then, but maybe we’ll be lucky and it won’t work again.

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  12. Adam says:

    I like to look a head at polls in the different primaries but the problem is nobody has polled anywhere but Iowa and now NH in weeks. I suspect Hillary’s support has eroded in all those places over time and that Obama isn’t jumping in the polls as much as it appears, but there’s no way to tell.

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